40 million people rely on water from the Colorado River Basin, in addition to 5 million acres of farmland. This literal lifeblood of the American Southwest is in serious jeopardy, though, and I’d wager fewer than 1 million people are giving it the attention it deserves. That’s a sad indictment of our modern world, where we’re so disconnected from the nature that supports us, that the idea of running out of water seems absurd.
Yet in Arizona and Nevada, that’s an increasingly likely reality.
Under rules formalized by the Bureau of Reclamation last week, Nevada will lose 17% of their Colorado River allocation over the next two years. If the drought persists and water levels remain critically low in Lake Powell and Lake Mead, Nevada could stand to lose another 71% of its water allocation. Such a drastic cut would be more water than Nevada currently uses from the river. In Arizona, the state faces cuts of roughly 27% of its allocation each year through 2028.
Arizona is in a unique position because they only received Colorado River water after agreeing to be first-in-line for cuts, should the river run dry during drought years. Nevada’s allocation mostly goes to Las Vegas, a city that leads the nation in water conservation. But both areas are at risk of running out of water in a not-so-distant future because of the insistence on keeping Lake Mead and Lake Powell at certain capacities.
Aside from providing water storage, both reservoirs are also major power generating stations. For some reason, America has an aversion to building out new forms of power generation, and major portions of the American Southwest depend on the power generated by these dams. If the reservoir levels fall too low, power generation drops significantly; in Powell’s case, power generation stops entirely and water can’t flow downstream into the Grand Canyon.
Only 43 years ago, Powell was full. The winter and spring of 1983 was wet throughout the region, and even during the opening years of this current drought in the early 2000s, there was hope both lakes would return to their high levels quickly.
Instead, we’re living in a world where 20 years of consistently below-average flows have parched the ground and depleted groundwater supplies. Aquifers have to recharge, the soil needs to return to its normal level of moisture content, before the water can runoff into reservoirs for us to store for future use. Right now, the region is so dry, even a banner winter this year won’t make much of a dent.
Yet this problem goes largely unnoticed by most living in the area, because water is still cheap and available.
In just a few years, it might not be.
Phoenix and Tuscon have other sources of culinary water they can tap into. Las Vegas, however, is limited in their water supplies. Other, smaller settlements in the region – including Native American Reservations – are in a similar situation. And thanks in large part of a lack of planning from those in charge, these areas stand to bear the brunt of water shortages and increasing costs.
The solution here isn’t simple. Population growth in the West has exploded, far beyond what the area’s water supplies can likely support long term. So who has to leave? Who bears the brunt of the bad planning decisions made in the last 30 years? Who gets held accountable for unbridled development? And does holding them accountable actually solve the current problem?
Adding to that, who are we to dictate what crop a farmer decides to grow and sell on their land? Almonds are notorious water users, and they’re grown prolifically in California. Alfalfa drinks water at an alarming rate, but it’s grown throughout the region to support cattle ranching. Do we tell the farmers and ranchers to pack up and leave? To only grow crops and ranch animals that do well in an arid region?
Wars over water are nothing new. But the consequences have never been quite this dire. At a bare minimum, we should be demanding action and plans from our leaders. Instead, they’re filing lawsuits and giving partisan statements to any news outlet that will listen, because at least they’re seen doing something. There doesn’t seem to be a desire to actually find a solution. Instead, we’re watching the blame get shifted in the hopes that it’ll distract us from the reality that’s coming.